The Republic January 31, 2011
For political analysts it was just a move to strengthen his role as President of the European Commission. And to answer those who accuse him of being subjected to the 'agenda of the leading countries like Germany and France, as it is occurred during the financial crisis. But José Manuel Barroso's visit to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in mid-January had another purpose: to raise the energy policy of 'European Union to ensure the EU to the 27' s gas supply for decades to come. Barroso's trip in the two Caucasian republics has so raised on a media project, the Nabucco pipeline, which is spoken by at least five years but that seemed destined to a dead end. It raised the dualism with other projects that, on paper, seem destined to be more successful in order to ensure reliable supplies to what is indicated by all experts as the main energy source of the twenty-first century: between 2030 and 2040 the natural gas will surpass oil on the world stage and will remain the dominant fuel for at least 80,100 years. For the 'Europe and its economy becomes so important to make sure the gas, whose consumption can only grow, according to some in 2020 the EU will need 140 billion cubic meters more per' year (to be clear: the only requirement of 'Italy currently stands at 8.085 trillion to' year). At the same time, the European Commission would differentiate the possible sources of supply at the time, over 35% of the EU's gas comes from Russia through the network of pipelines passing through Belarus to the north and from 'Ukraine to the south. With all the geopolitical uncertainty that this step involves, as we have seen during the crisis between Moscow and Kiev in 2005. Nabucco, more than 3 thousand kilometers of pipes through the territory turkish, born for this: take the gas directly from the countries of the Caucasus, to bring in competition at the level of prices the Russians with other suppliers. A project supported by the United States. Not only because this is how the Asian republics would come in 'orbit' s Europe, increasingly escaping to Russia. But because in this way, the same old continent would become less dependent on Moscow. It 'the same reason that ExxonMobil has supported the' cost increases (almost doubled due to the boom in prices of cement and steel) for the construction the Rovigo regasification terminal (8 billion cubic meters of gas to 'year of arrival by ship from Qatar). But Nabucco has many problems to solve. Meanwhile, the competition has to deal with an 'other infrastructure. It is the South Stream project was born from a joint venture between the 'Italian Eni and the Russian giant Gazprom, which is controlled directly by the Kremlin: a pipe that passes under the Black Sea and arrived in Bulgaria and then connect with the European network. Project which threatens the very credibility of the European Commission to support Nabucco, given that Gazprom is negotiating to open the capital of South Stream to French Edf. And soon, as recently confirmed by the 'Chief Executive Officer of Eni, Paolo Scaroni to others: "We are willing to accept a German partner." In this way, you will complete the 'encirclement of Russia to Europe', as with the same technical criteria and with almost the same corporate structure, there is a twin project in 'northern area: the North Stream gas pipeline, whose works are among 's already started in another region of Russia bordering Finland, which will lead pipes in Germany across the Baltic and the capital of which he starred as well as Gazprom and France's GDF Suez is the German E.On. Also available are an Italian presence in North Stream, as the contract for the first lot of the work was awarded to a consortium led by Saipem, a subsidiary of Eni. But the problems Nabucco is not merely a race against time against the rival South Stream. The true limit of the EU-sponsored pipeline is paradoxically the lack of gas. And this was the reason for Barroso's recent trip to Asia. After which the President of the European Commission has torn the government 's promise of Azerbaijan's gas supplies, they speak of at least $ 20 billion, which could add another 10 billion from Turkmenistan, 30 billion to ensure that the scope of Nabucco . But these promises for now. And without the certainty of contracts, industry analysts point out, the work can never leave. So much so that the 'opening of the yards in the first phase was scheduled for 2010 but a tutt 'today does not have a date certain. The advantage of the South Stream is just that: the supply is assured by Gazprom. Furthermore, with the 'current phase of the gas market, the European partners would be helped in being able to rip the Russians a better price. The discovery of new reserves of natural gas extracted from the rocks in the United States has lowered the prices of liquefied gas that travels by ship. With the result that all the large European companies have asked Gazprom to review all long-term contracts. The Russians will hold on to the old arrangements, but will be harder than I get by with the new. So many unknowns related to the implementation of Nabucco are fueling the debate on possible solutions, somehow alternatives. One of these was made by 'Chief Executive Officer of Edison, the Italian company is working to build an undersea gas pipeline between Greece and Apulia (l' Igi) to get gas to Italy from Turkey via the Balkans . Quadrino proposes to channel the limited resources currently provided to the Nabucco 's Igi and its stroke Balkan (ITGI) in Italy to bring in 10 billion cubic meters of gas from' Aizerbaigian (instead of 30 under the Nabucco) networks existing in Turkey. Others, such as' to Eni's Paolo Scaroni propose a common trait between South Stream and Nabucco in the Balkan territory. But as long as you do both. This could help not just the 'Italy. Taking into account that in two years will also operate Galsi (a tube coming from Tuscany 'Algeria via Sardinia), our country could be in a position to become the platform for the supply of gas for Europe'. Taking into account also that before 2020 will be to complete contracts for the supply from the North Sea. In essence, importing only from country suddenly become the exporting country. But at that point, rather than the realization of Nabucco, the European Commission should put in an agenda 'other priorities: to give common rules to all States for the management of gas networks. And maybe to get to a common network for all member states, with a "public" separated by operators.
Luca Pagni
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